F1 championship permutations: How Lando Norris can win title at Qatar Grand Prix on Sunday as Oscar Piastri, Max Verstappen try to stop McLaren driver

Lando Norris can become 2025 F1 world champion on Sunday at the Qatar Grand Prix, but how can he do it?

How Norris can win the championship

Oscar Piastri won Saturday's Sprint in Qatar with Norris in third ahead of Max Verstappen in fourth.

Piastri trimmed Norris' title lead to 22 points and Verstappen is now 25 points back with just two races to go in Qatar on Sunday and Abu Dhabi next weekend, where a maximum of 50 points are available.

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Norris will be world champion with a race to spare if he is 26 points, or more, ahead of Piastri and 25 points in front of Verstappen after the Qatar Grand Prix (lights out at 4pm live on Sky Sports F1). That means he must gain four points on Piastri and effectively finish ahead of Verstappen.

The two most likely scenarios he can do this are by winning the race, as he would outscore his two rivals by at least seven points, or by finishing second ahead of Verstappen, with Piastri not on the podium.

Norris must finish in the top eight on Sunday to have any chance of sealing the title, but would require a lot of help from Piastri and Verstappen.

What are Piastri and Verstappen's chances now?

The Sprint does not change too much as Norris still has the championship in his hands. Piastri and Verstappen must effectively beat the British driver to stay in title contention, although Piastri can afford a DNF if Norris scores less than four points.

Realistically, both drivers will want to gain at least double-figure points on Norris in Sunday's race to give themselves a better chance in Abu Dhabi, and the best way to do that would be with victory.

If Piastri can continue his form from the Sprint part of the weekend in Qatar, he could do this, while Verstappen will be hoping Red Bull can make positive set-up changes to his car which help his performance.

In the case of Verstappen, he must be 24 points, or less, behind Norris to take his incredible comeback to the final round in Abu Dhabi.

The reason it cannot be 25 points is, even if Verstappen wins in Abu Dhabi, he would be tied on seven victories with Norris. Therefore, the tie-break scenario would go to second places and Norris currently has eight to Verstappen's four.

Piastri can still afford to be exactly 25 points adrift of Norris as the McLaren duo have the same number of wins (eight), so victory for Piastri in Abu Dhabi would put him onto nine and he would be world champion on countback.

Will McLaren favour Norris?

McLaren have consistently stated they will support both drivers' championship ambitions until they are mathematically out of the title hunt.

Earlier this month, McLaren chief executive Zak Brown said he would rather lose the championship to Verstappen than favour one of his drivers.

Brown referenced the 2007 F1 season when McLaren pair Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso narrowly lost out to Kimi Raikkonen in the drivers' championship, with the team not backing one driver.

Raikkonen was 17 points, which is 42 points using today's points system, behind then championship leader Hamilton with two rounds to go yet still overturned the deficit.

"That's not how we go racing. If 2007 happens again, I'd rather have that outcome than any other that involves playing favourites - we won't do it," said Brown.

Given Piastri is within a race win of Norris, McLaren will stand by their principles despite the now serious Verstappen threat.

And the Woking-based team cannot afford to ask Piastri to play a back-up role in case Norris has a poor result on Sunday in Qatar.

Team principal Andrea Stella has previously stated: "There is no reason to do so. We have always said that as long as the maths does not say otherwise, we would leave it up to the two drivers to fight for their chance at the final victory, and that is how it will be in Qatar.

"Let's not forget that if someone had told us at the start of the season that we would find ourselves in this situation with two races to go, we would have signed up for it! Now we are going to fight for the double world championship with confidence and awareness of our strength."

Will McLaren be more cautious after Las Vegas disqualifications?

So far, it looks like the answer is no. There was a theory that McLaren would have to raise the car's ride height in Qatar to avoid porpoising, which is when the car bounces at high-speed, so that the skid blocks and plank underneath the car would not wear out.

However, they have had the car to beat in Qatar and there have been no signs of big sparks flying off the car like we saw in Las Vegas.

The Qatar and Abu Dhabi tracks are relatively smooth compared to Las Vegas too, but there may be a few nerves post-race in the McLaren garage in case there is a repeat of their disqualifications.

Sky Sports F1's Qatar GP schedule

Sunday November 30
11.55am: F2 Feature Race
2.30pm: Grand Prix Sunday: Qatar GP build-up
4pm: THE QATAR GRAND PRIX
6pm: Chequered Flag: Qatar GP reaction
7pm: Ted's Notebook

Formula 1's thrilling title race continues with the Qatar Grand Prix on Sunday at 4pm (build-up from 2.30pm, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime

(c) Sky Sports 2025: F1 championship permutations: How Lando Norris can win title at Qatar Grand Prix on Sunday as Oscar Piastri, Max Verstappen try to stop McLaren driver