Exeter pioneering research into spread of covid-19

An Exeter University project to predict the spread of covid-19 in the UK and evaluate the impact of quarantine restrictions has been boosted by a grant nearly a quarter of million pounds.

The £220,403 goes to the work of Dr Leon Danon who is developing a new tool to forecast where and when the disease will spread. It is one of 21 new projects including the first clinical drug trial in primary care, vaccine and therapy development, and studying epidemiology, disease transmission, behavioural interventions and policy approaches to covid-19. 

Dr Danon, a senior lecture in data analytics at Exeter’s computer science department, will adapt and develop new mathematical models of disease spread and movement in the UK. These new models will not only evaluate the impact of control and mitigation strategies - including travel restrictions, border screening and quarantine policies – but crucially also predict where and when the disease will spread.

Dr Danon says: “The goal of this project is to minimise the number of deaths in the UK through mathematical modelling. This work already provides a key piece of evidence for planning of responses to covd-19 in the UK. The current funding will enable us to work at a quicker pace to predict how the disease will progress up and down the country.

“The aim is to provide up-to-date predictions directly to policy makers, to help prepare hospitals and treatment centres for the upcoming demand and to test mitigation strategies. We will assess and rank the effectiveness of controls, both non-pharmaceutical - such as social distancing - and pharmaceutical (vaccines or antivirals) once they become available.”

UK Research and Innovation Chief Executive, Professor Sir Mark Walport said: “The research community’s response to the covid-19 crisis has been outstanding. In a matter of weeks, researchers have formed projects to develop potential vaccines, repurpose existing drugs and explore the potential for new medicines, and to examine how the virus is transmitted and causes wide variation in symptoms.

“Pre-clinical trials of vaccines and clinical trials of drugs are already underway. The pace at which this work has been carried out is tribute to the UK’s world-class research base and its dedication to the fight against this disease.”

The projects, which are receiving a total of £25 million in duding, will run over a maximum 18-month period.